Mairav Zonszein, an expert on Israel-Palestine for the Belgium-based International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that Israel had always planned to invade Rafah, irrespective of US backing for its operations. Over the weekend, Israeli air attacks killed at least 22 people, including 18 children, in the southern city, Palestinian health officials said. Israel’s recent attacks and warnings in Gaza have raised fears of a larger offensive on Rafah. It contains houses, artillery batteries, vehicles and living quarters for troops ‘Drumming up false beliefs’ “That’s why Netanyahu is trying to leverage the diplomatic position he’s in to pursue his ambition to conquer Rafah and to move ahead with an operation there.” This military outpost was established between January and February, 4km (2.5 miles) east of Gaza, opposite the Khuza’a area. “I think because of the fear to escalate with Iran – which is the nightmare scenario that people could envision – they are more attentive to alternative options,” said Eyal Lurie-Pardes, an Israel-Palestine expert with the US-based Middle East Institute. While Iran played down the strike and Israel has not publicly commented on it at all, in perhaps an effort from both sides to de-escalate tensions, Israel has reiterated its plans to attack Rafah. Iran warned of its attack days in advance, and Israel and allied countries shot down almost all incoming strikes.ĭays later, Israel appeared to respond with a minor strike on Iran’s Isfahan airbase, which also hosts nuclear facilities. On April 14, Iran fired hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will also attempt to leverage Iran’s attack on Israel to consolidate his domestic position, experts said. “The Israelis have made an art form out of extracting a price for doing something or not doing something, whether they actually intended to do it or not,” he told Al Jazeera US officials have denied those reports, but Israel does have more leverage to attack Rafah by dangling the spectre of regional escalation, according to Omar Rahman, an expert on Israel-Palestine at the Qatar-based Middle East Council for Global Affairs. The meeting followed rumours that the United States would support a full-scale invasion of Rafah – having previously expressed public reservations – in return for assurances that Israel would not escalate its tit-for-tat attacks with Iran. On April 18, US and Israeli officials met to discuss a possible operation in Rafah, a town on the border with Egypt currently providing relative safety to more than 1.4 million Palestinians displaced within the enclave.

An analysis of satellite imagery shows the presence of approximately 120 military vehicles at the Zikim base, on the northern side of the border with Gaza Extracting a price “My general sense is that the security establishment would be more likely to prioritise finishing off Gaza, then shifting to other threats – whether that be Hezbollah or Iran,” said Hugh Lovatt, an expert on Israel-Palestine with the European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR). Israel’s war has killed nearly 35,000 Palestinians in Gaza, displaced most of the population and destroyed 62 percent of all homes.Īccording to Israeli officials, about 1,139 people were killed in Hamas’s October 7 attack and about 250 were taken captive.Īl Jazeera’s satellite analysis supports the view of several experts who say Israel will dedicate most of its military resources to its campaign in Gaza, despite having withdrawn the majority of its forces from the enclave in recent weeks. The findings indicate that Israel plans to continue its war on Gaza, which was launched after Hamas’s surprise attack on Israeli communities and military outposts on October 7, despite global condemnation. The outposts house soldiers, operational command centres and military vehicles. Three were erected in November and December 2023 and six were set up between January and March of this year. The satellite imagery also reveals that Israel has established nine military outposts just outside the enclave. Keep reading list of 3 items list 1 of 3 Israeli military intelligence chief resignation will put peers on the spot list 2 of 3 Israel gave no evidence UNRWA staff linked to ‘terrorism’: Colonna report list 3 of 3 Columbia, NYU, Yale on the boil over Israel’s war on Gaza: What’s going on? end of list

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